El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a naturally occurring climate pattern originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During such an event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise above normal levels, disrupting atmospheric circulation and altering global wind and storm patterns. The WMO monitors the phenomenon using the Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies across a defined Pacific region. A value above 0.5°C indicates El Niño conditions, while the current forecast places the index at approximately 1.8°C, categorising it as a strong event.
According to projections from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), supported by the WMO outlook, India may experience below-normal monsoon rainfall, estimated at around 90 percent of the long-period average, which defines a normal monsoon season. Major urban centres, including Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad, are expected to receive reduced rainfall, while parts of northeastern India may be less severely affected by the dry conditions.
The impact of the evolving El Niño is also expected to extend beyond South Asia. Northeastern Brazil, including Recife and Fortaleza, is projected to receive below-average rainfall, while much of Australia, including Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth, may face drier-than-usual conditions during the same period.
However, the phenomenon is also likely to enhance precipitation in certain regions. The WMO indicates that areas of the Pacific Ocean east of the International Date Line may experience above-normal rainfall, along with parts of Ecuador’s typically dry coastline. Southern Africa is also expected to witness wetter-than-normal conditions, with cities such as Johannesburg and Harare likely to record increased rainfall levels.
Scientists emphasise that El Niño does not reduce global rainfall overall but redistributes precipitation patterns across regions. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the effects of El Niño extend far beyond the Pacific Ocean, influencing food security, water availability, and livelihoods on a global scale. The organisation has urged governments and communities to strengthen preparedness measures to mitigate potential climate-related disruptions.
As the El Niño event continues to intensify, meteorological agencies worldwide are closely monitoring its evolution and refining seasonal forecasts. While regional impacts may vary, the developing climate pattern is expected to significantly reshape rainfall distribution across continents, with far-reaching consequences for agriculture, water management, and daily life in the months ahead.
Ultimately, the strengthening El Niño stands as a critical climatic development capable of reshaping seasonal weather patterns, determining regions of surplus rainfall and areas at risk of prolonged dry conditions.
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